You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind's blowing. But you do need one to track the path of a hurricane. Right now, Hurricane Charley should be making landfall in the Tampa Bay area. Why should I care, you ask? Because my one and only sister lives in Seminole, about 30 minutes west of Tampa. Not that she's worried -- she lives in a non-evacuation area (translation: her house is up high and not near the water), she's got the house stocked with supplies, and she's prepared to ride out the storm. She e-mailed me last night to tell me (a) even if she did have to evacuate, the two places she'd head -- Orlando and Daytona -- are along the projected storm path, and (b) this is the storm they've been waiting for ever since she moved to Florida twelve years ago, so at least now it'll be over with. I'm glad she's ready for it. Me, I'll take New Jersey -- no major earthquakes, no major tornadoes, no major hurricanes. Just a little snow in the winter. I can live with that. (PS -- what's eerie is that I was just down there visiting her last weekend. If I'd scheduled the trip one week later, I either wouldn't have been able to get in or get out.)
Friday, August 13, 2004
S**t hits fan; film at 11. Since regular readers know that I'm (a) a New Jerseyan and (b) gay, it must follow that (c) I've got an opinion about yesterday's twin bombshells regarding the state's current governor, Jim McGreevey. Regular readers would be (d) right. I've got some not-quite-totally formed opinions, and since this blog is all about me (what, you didn't believe the subtitle?), I get to trot them out for you.
Let's get the gay thing out of the way first. I've known many gay men who married women, sired children, and then came out. Their stories, like McGreevey's yesterday, contain the common thread of marriage being the socially-acceptable thing to do. This is not an unusual situation, and while McGreevey said that he thought 47 was way too old to reach this conclusion, there are certainly many married gay men who have reached the same conclusion at later ages. That McGreevey felt he had to take the marriage path -- not once, but twice -- is testimony of the power of the closet even three decades post-Stonewall. So while I cheer his decision to come out, it's tinged with a little sadness that he felt he had to wait this long.
Did his being gay affect his performance as governor? I strongly doubt it. Like any officeholder, he's made good decisions and bad decisions. I'm sure there will be those who look back over his career using a fine tooth comb, second-guessing as to which decisions were made by his brain and which were made by -- well, a lower-placed body part. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he almost exclusively used his brain. (More on the "almost" later.)
Should he have resigned over the affair? No. Officeholders have had affairs with staffers before, have admitted their wrongs and taken responsibility for them, and have gone on to serve well and honorably. That this affair happened to be with another man really does not change anything -- it was still an affair with a staffer. Stupid, yes (as McGreevey admitted); foolish, yes (ditto); career-ending, not necessarily.
Is he resigning for the right reason? Yes. McGreevey has decided that the scandal attaching to his affair will reflect badly on the office of the Governor, and will prevent him from governing effectively for the remainder of his term. Since he believes he will not be able to govern effectively, it follows for him that the only responsible thing to do is resign the office. I'm sure his advisors, friends, and family have given him many reasons why he should not resign; but in the end the decision rests with the man himself. It's difficult enough to contemplate such a course of action, much less carry it out, but McGreevey has, and I give him full credit for it.
So where does the "almost" come in? Because, foolish as having this affair was, it pales in stupidity with putting your lover on the state payroll in a job for which he was grossly unqualified. The scandal that is causing McGreevey to step down from office stems directly from putting his lover (or ex-lover -- it's none of our business when this affair started or when it ended) into a high-paying government job (which he then left after six months). That's thinking with the "little head", and that's what started the ball rolling until we got to yesterday's combination coming out announcement and resignation speech. And it doesn't help that the lover has filed or is planning to file a sexual harrassment lawsuit against McGreevey -- no doubt weighing in on the decision to resign.
What about the politics involved? Ooooh, good question, and one that all the talking heads will be playing with. Here's where my partly-baked-ideas come in, so feel free to ignore, reject, or accept as you see fit. New Jersey state law says that if McGreevey resigns from office more than 90 days before the general election then a special election for governor must take place on November 2. McGreevey's resignation will take effect on November 15. While state Senate president Richard Codey would become acting governor no matter when McGreevey resigned, the 11/15 date ensures that Codey -- a Democrat, like McGreevey -- stays in the Governor's chair until the end of McGreevey's term in 2006, instead of possibly having to leave in 2005. McGreevey's reasoning for the 11/15 date is to allow enough transition time for Codey to take over the office. The Republicans are calling this nonsense, for two reasons. First, if McGreevey feels he cannot continue as governor, then he should resign sooner rather than later (what, he can effectively govern during the worst of the media swirl but not after it dies down?). Second, former governor Christine Todd Whitman (a Republican) pointed out that after she resigned to become GW Bush's head of the EPA, her successor (state Senate president Donald DiFrancesco, also a Republican) had only three weeks transition time and managed to deal with the governorship.
The shadow knows... The shadow being that of Democratic US Senator Jon Corzine, who many are speculating might want to run for governor in 2006 himself. By resigning in November and keeping the Governorship in the hands of the Democrats, McGreevey is making sure the seat will be kept warm for Corzine's 2006 run. I'm not so sure about this -- if the election were held in November 2004, and if Corzine wanted to run, he could always resign his Senate seat to do so. But then we run into...
The elephant in the living room. And the donkey too, for that matter. Yes, folks, 2004 is a Presidential election year. Speculation is that there will be a larger-than-usual Republican turnout at the polls this time, even though New Jersey is usually seen at the national level as a solidly Democratic state. But the more Republicans turn out to vote, the higher the chance that the new governor would also be (gasp!) a Republican, even if the Democratic candidate could afford to spend tens of millions of dollars of his own money on the campaign -- as Corzine did when he won his Senate seat, to the tune of $60 million. So (according to this confluence of speculations) it's better for McGreevey to resign in November instead of right away, preserving the Governorship for the Democrats for now, giving Corzine a better shot in 2006, and not risking the loss of Corzine's Senate seat this year. That's too much conspiracy theory for me, although I admit I'm not the world's sharpest tack in the long-term political strategy department.
So what's the upshot? From my own non-disinterested point of view: McGreevey did the right thing in coming out, admitting his affair, and taking full responsibility for it. I'm not sure the resignation was necessary, but that was McGreevey's choice to make and I must therefore respect it and the reasoning he gave. He should never have put his boytoy on the state payroll, and now he's paying the price for that. Jersey politics remains Jersey politics no matter what, and I'm sure the machinations going on right now in both parties would leave the Byzantines in the dust. Anyway, for the next three months, New Jersey will be the only state in the nation ever to have an openly gay man as its Governor -- and that is a reason to be proud.
Let's get the gay thing out of the way first. I've known many gay men who married women, sired children, and then came out. Their stories, like McGreevey's yesterday, contain the common thread of marriage being the socially-acceptable thing to do. This is not an unusual situation, and while McGreevey said that he thought 47 was way too old to reach this conclusion, there are certainly many married gay men who have reached the same conclusion at later ages. That McGreevey felt he had to take the marriage path -- not once, but twice -- is testimony of the power of the closet even three decades post-Stonewall. So while I cheer his decision to come out, it's tinged with a little sadness that he felt he had to wait this long.
Did his being gay affect his performance as governor? I strongly doubt it. Like any officeholder, he's made good decisions and bad decisions. I'm sure there will be those who look back over his career using a fine tooth comb, second-guessing as to which decisions were made by his brain and which were made by -- well, a lower-placed body part. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and say that he almost exclusively used his brain. (More on the "almost" later.)
Should he have resigned over the affair? No. Officeholders have had affairs with staffers before, have admitted their wrongs and taken responsibility for them, and have gone on to serve well and honorably. That this affair happened to be with another man really does not change anything -- it was still an affair with a staffer. Stupid, yes (as McGreevey admitted); foolish, yes (ditto); career-ending, not necessarily.
Is he resigning for the right reason? Yes. McGreevey has decided that the scandal attaching to his affair will reflect badly on the office of the Governor, and will prevent him from governing effectively for the remainder of his term. Since he believes he will not be able to govern effectively, it follows for him that the only responsible thing to do is resign the office. I'm sure his advisors, friends, and family have given him many reasons why he should not resign; but in the end the decision rests with the man himself. It's difficult enough to contemplate such a course of action, much less carry it out, but McGreevey has, and I give him full credit for it.
So where does the "almost" come in? Because, foolish as having this affair was, it pales in stupidity with putting your lover on the state payroll in a job for which he was grossly unqualified. The scandal that is causing McGreevey to step down from office stems directly from putting his lover (or ex-lover -- it's none of our business when this affair started or when it ended) into a high-paying government job (which he then left after six months). That's thinking with the "little head", and that's what started the ball rolling until we got to yesterday's combination coming out announcement and resignation speech. And it doesn't help that the lover has filed or is planning to file a sexual harrassment lawsuit against McGreevey -- no doubt weighing in on the decision to resign.
What about the politics involved? Ooooh, good question, and one that all the talking heads will be playing with. Here's where my partly-baked-ideas come in, so feel free to ignore, reject, or accept as you see fit. New Jersey state law says that if McGreevey resigns from office more than 90 days before the general election then a special election for governor must take place on November 2. McGreevey's resignation will take effect on November 15. While state Senate president Richard Codey would become acting governor no matter when McGreevey resigned, the 11/15 date ensures that Codey -- a Democrat, like McGreevey -- stays in the Governor's chair until the end of McGreevey's term in 2006, instead of possibly having to leave in 2005. McGreevey's reasoning for the 11/15 date is to allow enough transition time for Codey to take over the office. The Republicans are calling this nonsense, for two reasons. First, if McGreevey feels he cannot continue as governor, then he should resign sooner rather than later (what, he can effectively govern during the worst of the media swirl but not after it dies down?). Second, former governor Christine Todd Whitman (a Republican) pointed out that after she resigned to become GW Bush's head of the EPA, her successor (state Senate president Donald DiFrancesco, also a Republican) had only three weeks transition time and managed to deal with the governorship.
The shadow knows... The shadow being that of Democratic US Senator Jon Corzine, who many are speculating might want to run for governor in 2006 himself. By resigning in November and keeping the Governorship in the hands of the Democrats, McGreevey is making sure the seat will be kept warm for Corzine's 2006 run. I'm not so sure about this -- if the election were held in November 2004, and if Corzine wanted to run, he could always resign his Senate seat to do so. But then we run into...
The elephant in the living room. And the donkey too, for that matter. Yes, folks, 2004 is a Presidential election year. Speculation is that there will be a larger-than-usual Republican turnout at the polls this time, even though New Jersey is usually seen at the national level as a solidly Democratic state. But the more Republicans turn out to vote, the higher the chance that the new governor would also be (gasp!) a Republican, even if the Democratic candidate could afford to spend tens of millions of dollars of his own money on the campaign -- as Corzine did when he won his Senate seat, to the tune of $60 million. So (according to this confluence of speculations) it's better for McGreevey to resign in November instead of right away, preserving the Governorship for the Democrats for now, giving Corzine a better shot in 2006, and not risking the loss of Corzine's Senate seat this year. That's too much conspiracy theory for me, although I admit I'm not the world's sharpest tack in the long-term political strategy department.
So what's the upshot? From my own non-disinterested point of view: McGreevey did the right thing in coming out, admitting his affair, and taking full responsibility for it. I'm not sure the resignation was necessary, but that was McGreevey's choice to make and I must therefore respect it and the reasoning he gave. He should never have put his boytoy on the state payroll, and now he's paying the price for that. Jersey politics remains Jersey politics no matter what, and I'm sure the machinations going on right now in both parties would leave the Byzantines in the dust. Anyway, for the next three months, New Jersey will be the only state in the nation ever to have an openly gay man as its Governor -- and that is a reason to be proud.
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